The fight will continue to be especially hard in developing countries where they don’t have the same resources, strength of governance, and access to vaccines. are doing very well, but others are struggling, such as Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. A similar story is playing out in Australia and Japan. Consider New Zealand, which has done a brilliant job since the beginning of the pandemic but recently saw an alarming outbreak. We now have to expect ups and downs around the world as we see the answers play out differently in different places. How COVID dynamics might shape the Pandemic Era Will it develop a variant that out-spreads Delta, and perhaps is better at evading vaccines, or will it degrade? Will growing public fatigue on masking and social-distancing weaken policy responses? Will vaccine hesitancy grow? Will we become more committed to containment and vaccination, even if a booster becomes necessary every year, or see many people turn away from the fight and tolerate the consequences? These are the questions that will determine how long we stay in this pandemic. On the other hand, the virus now spreads far faster, and it continues to mutate. We now understand the virus, know what containment measures work, and have effective vaccines. On one hand, some of our questions have been resolved. “The fight will continue to be especially hard in developing countries where they don’t have the same resources, strength of governance, and access to vaccines.” Peter Schwartz, SVP of Strategic Planning, Salesforce We didn’t know how the virus would behave, whether or not we’d have a vaccine, and how the economic and political repercussions would unfold. Over a year ago, we began to confront the pandemic with an enormous amount of uncertainty. In the coming days, we will go into more depth on how businesses can prepare themselves for the uncertain future. Here, we lay out the scenarios and begin to suggest some initial strategic options. Our work suggests three very different possibilities for the business environments that should shape strategic choices today. In fact, I expect we’ll see a renewed commitment to scenario planning as a management tool. This means greater investments in capabilities to track developments, routinely re-evaluate data, and generate insight-driven options that help businesses become more agile and resilient. The exercise reminds us how useful scenarios are at a time of such uncertainty. Our Pandemic Era will profoundly shape the business context, as was true in previous historical eras We’re completing new scenarios for the next five years-what we’re calling the Pandemic Era. Larry Brilliant, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists, and economic and policy experts like historian Niall Ferguson and Martin Wolf of The Financial Times. To answer these questions, I’ve been working with my team at Salesforce Futures, our partners at Accenture Research, and experts across a variety of disciplines, such as Dr. What are the keys to responsible and sustainable growth? Are we ready to navigate an uncertain future?Ģ. “While risks remain, we see new forms of competitive advantage emerging for businesses that can sense the possible directions of change and build agility and resilience to adapt to coming shifts.” Peter Schwartz, SVP of Strategic Planning, Salesforceīusiness leaders everywhere are now asking two fundamental questions as they look ahead and grapple with strategic decisions:ġ. While risks remain, we see new forms of competitive advantage emerging for businesses that can sense the possible directions of change and build agility and resilience to adapt to coming shifts. It will deliver a sustained period of rapid change for business leaders of all kinds. This new era will be shaped by the pandemic crisis, our response to it, and by our ability to address and navigate these wider trends. It’s clear there’s no going back to the pre-pandemic status quo. When we consider challenges like climate change, rising inequalities, social injustice, a new focus on health and balance in our lives, and geopolitical tensions, these uncertainties only multiply. While we’ve made significant progress in developing vaccines and understanding COVID-19, the Delta variant has dragged us all back to an uncomfortably high degree of uncertainty about how the virus will continue to impact our lives and livelihoods.
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